Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War

by Paul Scharre

Overview

A Bill Gates Top Five Book of 2018


A Pentagon defense expert and former U.S. Army Ranger explores what it would mean to give machines authority over the ultimate decision of life or death.

What happens when a Predator drone has as much autonomy as a Google car? Or when a weapon that can hunt its own targets is hacked? Although it sounds like science fiction, the technology already exists to create weapons that can attack targets without human input. Paul Scharre, a leading expert in emerging weapons technologies, draws on deep research and firsthand experience to explore how these next-generation weapons are changing warfare.

Scharre’s far-ranging investigation examines the emergence of autonomous weapons, the movement to ban them, and the legal and ethical issues surrounding their use. He spotlights artificial intelligence in military technology, spanning decades of innovation from German noise-seeking Wren torpedoes in World War II—antecedents of today’s homing missiles—to autonomous cyber weapons, submarine-hunting robot ships, and robot tank armies. Through interviews with defense experts, ethicists, psychologists, and activists, Scharre surveys what challenges might face "centaur warfighters" on future battlefields, which will combine human and machine cognition. We’ve made tremendous technological progress in the past few decades, but we have also glimpsed the terrifying mishaps that can result from complex automated systems—such as when advanced F-22 fighter jets experienced a computer meltdown the first time they flew over the International Date Line.

At least thirty countries already have defensive autonomous weapons that operate under human supervision. Around the globe, militaries are racing to build robotic weapons with increasing autonomy. The ethical questions within this book grow more pressing each day. To what extent should such technologies be advanced? And if responsible democracies ban them, would that stop rogue regimes from taking advantage? At the forefront of a game-changing debate, Army of None engages military history, global policy, and cutting-edge science to argue that we must embrace technology where it can make war more precise and humane, but without surrendering human judgment. When the choice is life or death, there is no replacement for the human heart.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780393608984
Publisher:	Norton, W. W. & Company, Inc.
Publication date:	04/24/2018
Pages:	448
Product dimensions:	6.20(w) x 9.40(h) x 1.60(d)

About the Author

A former U.S. Army Ranger who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, Paul Scharre is the director of the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. He has written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Time, Foreign Affairs, and Politico, and he appears frequently on CNN, FOX News, NPR, MSNBC, and the BBC. He lives in Virginia.

Table of Contents

Introduction: The Power Over Life and Death 1

Part I Robopocalypse Now

1 The Coming Swarm: The Military Robotics Revolution 11

2 The Terminator And The Roomba: What Is Autonomy? 26

3 Machines That Kill: What Is an Autonomous Weapon? 35

Part II Building The Terminator

4 The Future Being Built Today: Autonomous Missiles, Drones, and Robot Swarms 59

5 Inside The Puzzle Palace: Is the Pentagon Building Autonomous Weapons? 78

6 Crossing The Threshold: Approving Autonomous Weapons 89

7 World War R: Robotic Weapons around the World 102

8 Garage Bots: DIY Killer Robots 120

Part III Runaway Gun

9 Robots Run Amok: Failure in Autonomous Systems 137

10 Command And Decision: Can Autonomous Weapons Be Used Safely? 161

11 Black Box: The Weird, Alien World of Deep Neural Networks 180

12 Failing Deadly: The Risk of Autonomous Weapons 189

Part IV Flash War

13 Bot vs. Bot: An Arms Race in Speed 199

14 The Invisible War: Autonomy in Cyberspace 211

15 "Summoning The Demon": The Rise of Intelligent Machines 231

Part V The Fight To Ban Autonomous Weapons

16 Robots On Trial: Autonomous Weapons and the Laws of War 251

17 Soulless Killers: The Morality of Autonomous Weapons 271

18 Playing With Fire: Autonomous Weapons and Stability 297

Part VI Averting Armageddon: The Weapon Of Policy

19 Centaur Warfighters: Humans + Machines 321

20 The Pope And The Crossbow: The Mixed History of Arms Control 331

21 Are Autonomous Weapons Inevitable?: The Search for Lethal Laws of Robotics 346

Conclusion

No Fate but What We Make 360

Afterword

How Robotic Weapon Are Transforming the Battlefield Today 363

Notes 369

Acknowledgments 425

Abbreviations 427

Illustration Credits 429

Index 431

Editorial Reviews

One of the most interesting books on military affairs that I have read in some time…provides a thoughtful overview of the mind-boggling issues associated with autonomous weapons…Scharre handily explicates an extraordinary set of problems that we will only begin to understand as we see more of the weirder quirks and idiosyncrasies of high-speed artificial intelligence, a field we barely understand today.

The New York Times Book Review - Thomas E. Ricks

03/19/2018
This important book illuminates what may be a fundamental change in the nature of war: the possibility of a future in which the majority of the fighting is done by autonomous weapons powered by artificial intelligence. Unlike drones, these machines make lethal decisions without a human “in the loop.” Scharre is an expert in the field, having served as a DoD analyst responsible for the U.S. policy regarding autonomous weapon systems (“Spoiler alert: it doesn’t ban them”). He talks to other experts, witnesses demonstrations, and analyzes historical examples to inform this exploration of current weapons (such as the capabilities of the Aegis ballistic missile defense system, which can rapidly shoot down ballistic missiles) and the ethical challenges surrounding autonomous weapons, including reliance on fallible tools (such as those of the Patriot air defense systems, which caused friendly fire incidents among U.S. aircraft in Iraq) and the likelihood of an arms race spurring investment in ethically questionable technology. This excellent primer is of interest to the general reader and a must-read for those who have a professional interest in military topics but are not up to speed on AI and robotics. (Apr.)

Publishers Weekly

Technology democratizes. What was once the exclusive purview of nation-states quickly becomes accessible by everyone. Army of None serves as a smart primer to what’s to come in warfare, but also what we’re going to have to contend with in our daily lives soon after.

Bruce Schneier

[D]etailed, nuanced, open-minded look at an incredibly complex and technical subject…Army of None will spark important discussions as it empowers reader with knowledge about a subject with enormous implications.

Booklist

Be very, very afraid. As this extraordinary book reveals, we are fast sailing into an era in which big life-and-death decisions in war will be made not by men and women, but by artificial intelligence. Are we prepared for the most fundamental shift in warfare in history? This illuminating book will dominate the discussion and analysis of this problem—and its execution in the field—for decades to come.

Admiral James Stavridis

The era of autonomous weapons is upon us. In Army of None, Scharre combines his experience as a warrior and his insight as a policy researcher to paint a comprehensive picture of exactly what such an era will look like. He masterfully weaves together threads tying future weapon systems, artificial intelligence, and policy imperatives to deliver a book that is simply a must-read for anyone interested in military technology and its broader implications.

Amir Husain

[D]etailed, nuanced, open-minded look at an incredibly complex and technical subject…Army of None will spark important discussions as it empowers reader with knowledge about a subject with enormous implications.

Booklist

[E]ngagingly detailed…Scharre offers an authoritative and sobering perspective on the automated battlefields that will very soon come to characterize military conflict.

Science

★ 2018-03-14
Former Army Ranger Scharre, the director of the Future of War Initiative at the Center for a New American Security, looks at the technical, strategic, and ethical questions raised by autonomous weapons, which are closer to reality than many civilians may realize.Mechanical weapons go back at least as far as the Civil War-era Gatling gun, which was expected to save lives by allowing a small crew to replace many riflemen. It led instead to the mass slaughter of World War I, when machine guns mowed down thousands of attacking infantrymen. Today's drones allow air strikes without exposing pilots to enemy fire. But in those cases, human beings make the decision whether to fire. What happens if human judgment isn't part of the decision-making loop? The author lists several weapons that pose that question, including missiles that could be sent to a location where enemy ships are known to be in order to seek out targets to attack. While such weapons are currently feasible, most military establishments are reluctant to deploy them. There is the ethical issue about using lethal force without a human taking the responsibility of killing, and there is also the strategic dilemma about starting an arms race. The technical question of creating autonomous control systems is already being tackled by makers of everything from vacuum cleaners to self-driving cars. Can robot tanks or bombers be far behind? Scharre looks at all these issues, talking to experts from the Pentagon, international peace organizations, and the robotics scientists who are pushing the boundaries of artificial intelligence. He also gives first-person reports on drone tests and other leading-edge technological developments. The author puts it all in the context of military history, including his own combat experience. While there are no firm conclusions, it is clear that autonomous weapons are on the horizon and that decisions about whether—and how—to use them will be critical factors in the future of warfare.A clear, well-written, and richly documented discussion of an issue that deserves deep and careful study.

Kirkus Reviews

"Army of None delivers what will likely be the most important general-audience book on this topic for at least the next decade."

Lawfare

"A sober, policy-focused primer on what is coming…written in an interesting and accessible manner."

War on the Rocks

"A one-stop guide book to the debates, the challenges, and yes, the opportunities that can come from autonomous warfare."

Techcrunch

"One of the most interesting books on military affairs that I have read in some time."

Thomas E. Ricks - New York Times Book Review

"A tour de force of the future of war technology…A highly readable journey through the world of robots on the battlefield and beyond."

P.W. Singer

"A must-read for anyone interested in AI and the future of warfare."

Task & Purpose

"In this comprehensive analysis, Scharre moves beyond the clichés of 'killer robots.'"

Lawrence D. Freeman - Foreign Affairs

"An authoritative and sobering perspective on the automated battlefields that will very soon come to characterize military conflict."

Science

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