This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This study develops a theory to determine the best execution time to conduct a hostage rescue attempt. It does so by explaining the phenomenon of a hostage crisis biorhythm and proposing four principles essential for success. The principles of hostage rescue operations presented in this study and used in the biorhythm model—surprise, intelligence, operator's skill, and deception—are derived from looking at numerous planning models from special operations, from personal experience, and the thorough analysis of six historical cases. The historical cases show that in every instance any one of these four principles was overlooked, the operation was doomed. These principles have been determined to be the most critical factors that change as the crisis develops throughout the hostage ordeal. A thorough understanding of this biorhythm will provide planning guidelines to assess the best windows of opportunity for a proposed rescue attempt. One main focus of this work will be an in-depth case study of the hostage rescue operation "CHAVIN DE HUANTAR". This case study will present compelling evidence to reinforce my hypostudy, and serves as a template model for successful rescue operations. The analysis of this single case will provide a wealth of information on the success of this remarkable operation. Another main focus of this study will be strategic thinking of a hostage crisis using game theory analysis. The findings of this study will enable decision-makers to plan and organize hostage rescue forces to act at the appropriate time (window of opportunity), maximizing their chances of success. Additionally, it will provide a useful planning model that can be implemented effectively and accurately, presenting a clear picture of possible outcomes throughout a hostage crisis. Furthermore, this study will help the reader become a better strategist during the planning, preparation, and execution of a hostage rescue operation. It will provide a thorough understanding of how these operations work, how to solve them successfully, and how to predict possible outcomes at different stages of the operation applying the principles of game theory.
This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
I. Introduction * II. The Rescue Operation * III. Operation Chavin De Huantar * IV. Trust And Influence During the Hostage Crisis * V. Deterrence, Coercion, and Crisis Management During the Hostage Crisis * VI. Game Theory and the Hostage Rescue * VII. The Hostage Dilemma Revisited * VIII. Operation Eagle Claw: Disaster at Desert One * IX. Short Case Studies * A. De Punt Train Hijacking; Holland, May - June 1977 * B. Munich Olympics Massacre, (German Police, September 1972) * C. Egypt Air Flight 648 At Malta: Egyptian Special Forces (Force 777, 1978) * D. Operation Fire Magic, Lufthansa Flight 181 Mogadishu, Somalia: Grenzschutzgruppe 9 October 1977
Ever since the ill-fated rescue attempt in Iran, the United States has been reluctant to commit military forces for hostage rescue operations. This reluctance is attributed in part to a risk adverse senior military leadership, stemming from disasters at DESERT ONE in 1980 and at Mogadishu in 1993, and to the uncertainty levels in a hostage crisis2 environment that result during a hostage ordeal. National-level interest in this area has been limited, resulting in pusillanimous policy made by U.S. Government officials to deal with hostage incidents worldwide. If U.S. military forces and their policy makers are going to be successful in the conduct of these high-risk operations, a clear and concise U.S. policy must be developed with a thorough understanding of the principles for hostage rescue operations and their metamorphosis throughout the hostage crisis biorhythm.
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